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Statistics (stat)

Wednesday, 4 November 2026: 52 new papers, 31 cross-lists and 60 replacements in all of Statistics, in arXiv's order, with full abstracts. The same papers as arXiv's own listing, set as a newspaper; every title links to arXiv.

Its categories: Applications (stat.AP) · Computation (stat.CO) · Methodology (stat.ME) · Machine Learning (stat.ML) · Other Statistics (stat.OT) · Statistics Theory (stat.TH)

New submissions (52)

1. Recovering Hidden Wildlife--Vehicle Collisions from Existing Crash Data: A Cross-State Framework for Detection, Prevalence Estimation, and Under-Reporting Audits

   Rasheed Bello, Judith Mwakalonge, Vaighese Vaidyan, Vijay Bendigeri, Anthony Dontoh, Gurcan Comert, Miriam Mkufya · arXiv:2611.03658

2. Mapping urban heat from citizen-collected data: a scalable Gaussian process approach to correcting for preferential sampling

   Ellie K. Kim, Zachary D. Calhoun, Michael H. Bergin, David E. Carlson · arXiv:2611.03659

3. Behavioral Prior Elicitation via LLM for Heterogeneous-Agent Bitcoin Flash-Crash Simulation

   Tran Phuong Linh Pham, Thi Minh Phuong Ngo, Phuong Thao Nguyen, Quang Minh Nguyen, Thai Hoa Ngo, Trong Nghia Nguyen · arXiv:2611.03660

4. Tail reliability in probabilistic electricity price forecasts: comparing model combination and conformal prediction in the GB day-ahead market

   Anirudh Agrawal, Aidan O'Sullivan · arXiv:2611.03661

5. Sequential Bayesian analysis of time-varying transmission in stratified epidemic renewal models

   Dhorasso Temfack, Jason Wyse · arXiv:2611.03663

6. Identifiability of Neologism Dynamics from Aggregate Corpus Counts

   Iv\'an Area, Antonio Moreno-Sandoval, Jordi Porta-Zamorano · arXiv:2611.03664

7. Development of tools for all-cause mortality prediction in heart failure patients: a systematic review

   Erik Aerts, Annika Rosengren, Martin Lindgren, Martin Adiels, Yinan Yu, Helen S\"oland · arXiv:2611.03665

8. Statistical analysis of the remaining human life expectancy. Mathematical models of the type Gompertz-Makeham and others

   Kateryna Akbash, Ivan Matsak · arXiv:2611.03666

9. A signal-processing cascade linking satellite heat exposure, genomic variation, and mortality risk

   Usman Nazir, Sara Khalid · arXiv:2611.03667

10. Predicting Factor Decay: ML Models for Cross-Factor Predictability Erosion

    Chorok Lee · arXiv:2611.03668

11. Separating Weight and Likelihood Tail Effects in Bayesian Neural Groundwater Inversion

    Ke-Ming Shen · arXiv:2611.03669

12. Multi-modal Laplace-based sampling

    Maxime Eg\'ea, Hanyue Gu, Daniel Rudolf, Bj\"orn Sprungk · arXiv:2611.03773

13. BEAGLE in Action: Phylogenetic Likelihoods for Very Large State Spaces

    Benjamin D Redelings, April Wright, Karthik Gangavarapu, Yucai Shao, Filippo Monti, Wu-Min Deng, Shuo Su, Andrew Rambaut, Guy Baele, Philippe Lemey, Marc A. Suchard, Xiang Ji · arXiv:2611.03873

14. A Tetration Distribution

    Micah Thornton · arXiv:2611.03895

15. A generalized lasso formulation of weighted and regularized (nearly-)isotonic regression on graphs

    Vladimir Pastukhov · arXiv:2611.04018

16. Minimax signal detection in regression under differential privacy

    Elly K. H. Hung · arXiv:2611.04064

17. Terrain-Surface-Area Cover from LiDAR: Inverse-Probability-Weighted Estimation and a Global Cram\'er-von Mises Lack-of-Fit Test

    Marco Mandap (Bulacan State University) · arXiv:2611.04103

18. Nonparametric GARCH: An Iterated Neural Estimator

    Ruizhi Deng, Guohao Shen, Ngai Hang Chan · arXiv:2611.04157

19. Point interpolation and distributional universality in flow-based generative models

    Antonio \'Alvarez-L\'opez, Jingpu Cheng, Liyan Zhang, Qianxiao Li · arXiv:2611.04207

20. Two-Layer Random ReLU Networks Can Separate Disjoint Classes

    Yichen Liu, Jianbin Yang · arXiv:2611.04211

21. Deterministic Uniformization for Estimation and Latent Trajectory Inference in Interval-Censored Multistate Triansition Models

    Yuxi Zhu · arXiv:2611.04212

22. Aggregate Calibration Can Mask Stress-State Undercoverage: Bounded-Memory Forecast Intervals under Recurrent Financial Stress

    Ruihang Han, Li-Hsiang Lin · arXiv:2611.04223

23. Integrating Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification for Real-Time Decision-Making in Digital Twins: A System-Centric Review and Perspective

    Yi-Ping Chen, Ying-Kuan Tsai, Seul Lee, Vispi Karkaria, Dex Doksoo Lee, Wei Chen · arXiv:2611.04269

24. Bezier-GP: Bezier-Surface-Based Gaussian Process for Chips-on-Wafer Warpage Modeling

    Sangyup Lee, Xiao Liu, Jianjun Shi · arXiv:2611.04280

25. Inferential Issues in Model-based Small Area Estimation: Some History and Selective Recent Advances

    J. N. K. Rao, J. Sunil Rao · arXiv:2611.04281

26. How Risky Is Your Data-Driven Policy?

    Omar Besbes, Alon Rieger · arXiv:2611.04292

27. Covariate Adjustment for Time-Restricted Marginal Win Statistics in Randomized Trials: Assumption-Lean Inference and Guaranteed Efficiency Gain

    Baoshan Zhang, Laine E. Thomas, Yuan Wu, Yu Du, Tuo Wang · arXiv:2611.04302

28. Nearly Linear-Time Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader for Weakly Observable Graph Bandits

    Jongyeong Lee, Hyundam Yoo · arXiv:2611.04307

29. Analytically Calibrated Upper L-Statistics for High-Dimensional Mean Change-Point Testing

    Guowei Yan, Dan Zhuang, Long Feng · arXiv:2611.04364

30. When Listwise Deletion Works: Causal Diagrams and Complete-Case Regression

    Wenxin Lin, Shiyao Liu · arXiv:2611.04366

31. Bandwidth rules for Dirichlet kernel density estimation on the simplex

    Jiajin Xie, Eduardo Garc\'ia-Portugu\'es, Yong Wang · arXiv:2611.04412

32. A Bayesian-Geometric Reading of Classical Model-Based Optimal Design

    Mohamed Tarek · arXiv:2611.04450

33. Nuisance structure and the detection boundary for population size: how profiling can change a rate, not only a constant

    Yakir Berchenko · arXiv:2611.04453

34. Identifying the determinants of soccer coach turnover by competing risks models: a case study on Italian League Serie A

    Francesco Porro, Marialuisa Restaino, Juan Eloy Ruiz-Castro, Mariangela Zenga · arXiv:2611.04572

35. A reliability data aggregation method for fusion-oriented research facilities

    Helena Ortiz, Juan Eloy Ruiz-Castro, Christian Acal, Karol Kowal, Juan Chiach\'io, Ana Mar\'ia Aguilera · arXiv:2611.04585

36. Conditional independence and graphical models for rankings

    Aritz P\'erez · arXiv:2611.04586

37. Estimating "Realized" Skewness using Convolutional Neural Network

    Haozhe Jiang, Ostap Okhrin, Michael Rockinger · arXiv:2611.04598

38. Decentralized Sparse Quantile Regression

    Changxin Yang, Jianwei Shi, Zhongyi Zhu · arXiv:2611.04612

39. Bayesian Change-Point Detection and Fault Scoring in District Heating Systems

    Tanja Korsten Bugajski, Nicolai Peder B\"ulow Pedersen, J. Eduardo Vera-Vald\'es, Michal Zbigniew Pomianowski, Anna Marszal-Pomianowska · arXiv:2611.04682

40. One-shot Distributed Learning via Weighted Averaging with Server-side Information

    Pavle Tepav\v{c}evi\'{c}, Du\v{s}an Jakoveti\'{c}, Milo\v{s} Savi\'{c} · arXiv:2611.04700

41. Approximating Distributions on Vertex Degrees in Random Hypergraphs via Stein's Method

    Xianghe Zhu, Wenkai Xu, Gesine Reinert · arXiv:2611.04705

42. Selection instability and coefficient uncertainty in Cox modelling after Lasso selection

    Lena Schemet, Andreas Groll, Sarah Friedrich-Welz · arXiv:2611.04765

43. Bayesian Cluster-Adjusted Standardised Mean Differences: A Simulation Study

    Yannis B\"ahni · arXiv:2611.04812

44. UniFlow: Unified Multi-Scale Flow Matching for Time Series Generation

    Shibo Feng, Wei Li, Min Wu, Chunyan Miao, Peilin Zhao · arXiv:2611.04825

45. Estimating Treatment Effects with a Single Arm Clinical Trial and Data Summaries from an External Control Group: is it Possible?

    Riddhiman Saha, Lorenzo Trippa · arXiv:2611.05016

46. A Random Matrix Analysis of Symmetric Tensor Unfolding

    Tom Szwagier, Xiaoyi Mai, Jos\'e Henrique de Morais Goulart · arXiv:2611.05137

47. Exact association-test distributions for prior-informed stepwise SNP prioritization

    N. Kossi Doulabe, Anne-Sophie Charest, Lajmi Lakhal-Chaieb · arXiv:2611.05203

48. The Hidden Markov Ising Model with Exogenous Covariates

    Aari Vinayagasothy, Beamlak Haddis, Oscar Lopez, Ann Manjo, Adam B Kashlak · arXiv:2611.05213

49. Scalable Bayesian inference for time-discretised Markov jump processes via exchangeable particle Gibbs

    Lanya Yang, Lloyd A. C. Chapman, Chris Sherlock · arXiv:2611.05232

50. Post-stratified importance sampling

    Yuling Yao, Sergei Tikhonov · arXiv:2611.05238

51. Interpretable Social Network Churn Prediction via Ergodic Markov Chains

    Matthew McQuistion, Siddhartha Sharan, Afia Zaheer · arXiv:2611.05252

52. Conformal Prediction at Performative Equilibrium: The Price of Performativity

    Ahmed Mahrous, Roberto Di Pietro · arXiv:2611.05277

Cross-lists (31)

1. Logit-based alternatives to two-stage least squares

   Denis Chetverikov, Jinyong Hahn, Zhipeng Liao, Shuyang Sheng · arXiv:2312.10333

2. Axiomatic Learning and Probabilistic Structures with first applications to variants of Arithmetic Machine Learning and beyond

   Vlad Margarint · arXiv:2610.36601

3. Four Extensions of the Universal Law of Robustness: Log-Concave Covariates, Heterogeneous Mixtures, Vector-Valued Predictors, and Markovian Data

   Tobias J. Peter (ZHAW Zurich University of Applied Sciences) · arXiv:2611.03653

4. Minimal Superior Penalties: Characterising and Calibrating Decision-Aware Proper Scoring Rules

   Rouhollah Ahmadian · arXiv:2611.03734

5. RATSIFT: Resolution-Adaptive Transformer for Solar Irradiance Forecasting and Temporal Downscaling

   Jesto Peter, Timothy M. Hansen, Hossein Moradi Rekabdarkolaee · arXiv:2611.03738

6. Bayesian Filters via the Stochastic Category

   Kenichi Bannai, Masahiro Kurisaki · arXiv:2611.03830

7. Experimentally Validated Digital Twins: Evaluating Workforce Training Programs in the Age of Big Data

   Raj Chetty, Jamie Fogel, Lawrence F. Katz, Kadeem Noray, Sonya Porter, James Reisinger · arXiv:2611.03938

8. PanelGP: A Probabilistic Factor Model for Asset-Return Panels

   Andrea Ruglioni (EPFL), Damir Filipovic (EPFL) · arXiv:2611.04040

9. Denoising Is Stein: Moment Access and a Resource Hierarchy for Learning Hidden Structure in Diffusion Models

   Rui Wang · arXiv:2611.04043

10. StreamLTT: Risk Certification for Policy Selection under Stream Dependence

    Jinwen Xu, Qin Lu · arXiv:2611.04062

11. Graph-Localized Coverage for Conformal Prediction on Inductive Graphs

    Jinwen Xu, Qin Lu, Georgios B. Giannakis · arXiv:2611.04066

12. Descending Everest, Part II: Oracle Complexity of Minimizing a Sum of Convex $(L_0,L_1)$-Smooth Functions

    Mikhail Rudomanov, Ivan Fomin, Alexander V. Gasnikov, Fedor S. Stonyakin · arXiv:2611.04171

13. Statistical Machine Learning for Medicinal Plant Leaves Classification

    Jayani P. Gamage, Thiyanga S. Talagala · arXiv:2611.04193

14. OmniST: Topology-Invariant Spatiotemporal Forecasting with Guaranteed-Coverage Uncertainty at Unseen Sensor Locations

    Praveg Vashishtha · arXiv:2611.04256

15. Semiparametric Estimation of Physics Parameters and Parton Distribution Functions

    Huanbiao Zhu, Jaco ter Hoeve, Mikael Kuusela, Maria Ubiali, Larry Wasserman · arXiv:2611.04267

16. Pairwise Distortion Distribution with Graph-Based Importance Sampling for Quantization Error and Intrinsic Dimension Estimation

    Xi Chen, Carl Nuzman, Shirin Jalali · arXiv:2611.04341

17. Proper Agnostic Learning of Affine Halfspaces under Log-Concave Marginals

    Zhijie Zheng · arXiv:2611.04344

18. Directional Statistics in Signal Processing: A Geometry Driven Overview of Models, Learning, and Applications

    Anders S. Olsen, Kanti V. Mardia, Dimitri Van De Ville, Morten M{\o}rup · arXiv:2611.04595

19. On the Onsager--Machlup functional of the infinite-dimensional angular central Gaussian distribution and related measures

    Hefin Lambley, T. J. Sullivan, Sam Taylor · arXiv:2611.04781

20. Where Is the Truth When AI Agents Disagree? Dependence-Aware Belief Propagation for Unsupervised Truth Discovery (Extended Version)

    Laure Berti-Equille · arXiv:2611.04805

21. Amortized Nonlinear Variable Selection with Prior-Data Fitted Networks

    Jin Zhu, Junxian Zhu · arXiv:2611.04848

22. Exact Selective Inference for Spectral Clustering via Piecewise-Constant Graph Perturbation

    Naotoshi Nakamura · arXiv:2611.04995

23. Enabling risk and reliability analysis in next-generation computational tools via multifidelity methods

    Anirban Chaudhuri, Karen Willcox · arXiv:2611.05087

24. Beyond Multi-Index Models: Learning Intersections of Degree-2 PTFs

    Ilias Diakonikolas, Daniel M. Kane, Mingchen Ma, Lisheng Ren, Trung Tran · arXiv:2611.05114

25. Macrocanonical Generator Networks: Data-Efficient Neural Surrogates for Amortized Physics Simulation

    Niall Jeffrey, Benjamin D. Wandelt · arXiv:2611.05157

26. Ensembles of Random Partition-Based Models under Covariate Shift

    Mary Versa Clemens-Sewall, Eliza O'Reilly · arXiv:2611.05195

27. Privacy for Free in Efficient Agnostic Halfspace Learning

    Giorgio Racca, Amartya Sanyal, Vikrant Singhal · arXiv:2611.05208

28. Post-Inference Model Chaining: A Problem Statement and a Model-based Bootstrap for Training End-to-End Digital Twins

    Lukas Madenach, Timo Bailer, Tobias Eilert · arXiv:2611.05225

29. Shrinkage prior for implicit generative models

    Shreya Sinha-Roy, Christian P. Robert, Ritabrata Dutta · arXiv:2611.05241

30. Logarithmic Regret for Alternating Mirror Descent

    Tianlong Nan, Christian Kroer · arXiv:2611.05243

31. A simple adaptive accelerated optimistic dual averaging method for unconstrained convex optimization in $p$-norm geometry

    Bowen Li, Danqing Zhou, Chuan He · arXiv:2611.05334

Replacements (60)

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